Is Kurt Zellers vulnerable? A deeper look
June 25th, 2009 2:01 pm by DJ DThe University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute’s blog Smart Politics wondered aloud whether new Minnesota House GOP Minority Leader Kurt Zellers is politically vulnerable. 
Their post looked at results from Zellers’s previous elections and found him to win each of his races by competitive margins, including a squeaker in 2006 when he won by only 356 votes. This strongly contrasts with those who have been in GOP leadership positions over the past 15 years (Steve Sviggum, Tim Pawlenty, Erik Paulsen, and Marty Seifert) who all routinely won elections by margins greater than 20 points.
Smart Politics draws from these data that yes, Zellers is vulnerable. We conclude that not only do they think he’s vulnerable; in 2008 the Republican Party and ally groups thought he was as well.
Campaign finance reports show the House Republican Campaign Committee (a group which Zellers now leads) spending a whopping $41,305.50 on independent expenditures in favor of Rep. Zellers in 2008. It doesn’t end there: the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce Leadership Fund spent $18,296.88 and the Republican Party of Minnesota dropped $11,772.01. The Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life PAC threw in $716.47 for good measure.
But as Ron Popeil would say on an infomercial:
“BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!”
In the 2008 campaign, the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce Leadership Fund spent $11,558.16 against Zellers’s DFL opponent Lee Carlson.
This adds up to a very significant figure of $83,648.52 spent by outside groups either in support of Zellers’s campaign or against his opponent’s. For context, the House DFL Caucus, Conservation Minnesota, and Education Minnesota combined to spend $6,856.61 for Carlson and against Zellers.
Zellers would go on to win the 2008 race by 6.29 percent.
Throughout the campaign for minority leader, Marty Seifert often put emphasis on the fundraising effort for the caucus his successor would have to commit to. While Zellers is telling Politics in Minnesota which brand of shoes is the best for doorknocking, the question now has to be asked: to what extent will Zellers have to raise massive amounts of money in order for the caucus, of which he is the leader, to sustain efforts in his own district?