Comments on: Iowa Caucuses tomorrow; predictions http://idonthateamerica.com/2008/01/02/iowa-caucuses-tomorrow-predictions/ A look at politics from student activists and recent alumni from Winona State University, MN. Fri, 05 Dec 2008 16:48:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2 By: DJ Danielson http://idonthateamerica.com/2008/01/02/iowa-caucuses-tomorrow-predictions/#comment-2068 DJ Danielson Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:01:20 +0000 http://idonthateamerica.com/2008/01/02/iowa-caucuses-tomorrow-predictions/#comment-2068 Inside knowledge? You're certainly kidding. Inside knowledge?

You’re certainly kidding.

]]> By: Minnesota Central http://idonthateamerica.com/2008/01/02/iowa-caucuses-tomorrow-predictions/#comment-2063 Minnesota Central Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:09:12 +0000 http://idonthateamerica.com/2008/01/02/iowa-caucuses-tomorrow-predictions/#comment-2063 Is your prediction from your heart or from inside knowledge ? Edwards should do well, but every time I click on C-SPAN and see the speeches what hits me is the crowds that Obama brings in. They could be going just for the experience, but I think that many will turn out at the caucus. Similarly, Clinton’s crowds has holes. Watch the results from Johnson County which is the home of Iowa City and the Univ. of Iowa. Kucinich did well there in 2004 and has told his delegates to switch to Obama … if Obama does well there, he will win the state. The other county to watch is Clinton … will it go to Clinton? My prediction is Obama / Edwards / Clinton / Biden / Richardson / Dodd on the first ballot. Then Obama / Edwards / Clinton / Richardson. Leaving Iowa, the Big Three will be largely indistinguishable as to who got first or third. Biden’s showing should be the surprise headline … and the question will be “Will Dodd stay in after New Hamshire?” and “Who will be left standing after Michigan?” At that point it may be it will be Kucinich and the Big Three. Huckabee will take the state … without Brownback, the evangelical base has to choose between Huckabee and Thompson … that’s a solid 30% to begin with. If Huckabee doesn’t get at least 40%, he really did not make any converts. Heck Alan Keyes got 14% in 2000 to Bush’s 41 % … so the social conservatives should bring over 50% to the caucus. The interesting aspect will be how well Ron Paul and John McCain perform. My prediction is Huckabee (40) Romney (31) McCain (13) Paul (12) Thompson (4) … and Alan Keyes will tie Duncan Hunter with zero. And the real test will be how many people show up ... if the Dems pull in big numbers that's a sign that they could convert Iowa from Red to Blue in November ... if the total number is the same as 2004, that would indicate that Iowa will stay Red. P.S. Don’t you think that Hillary looks like Lisa Simpson ? Is your prediction from your heart or from inside knowledge ?

Edwards should do well, but every time I click on C-SPAN and see the speeches what hits me is the crowds that Obama brings in. They could be going just for the experience, but I think that many will turn out at the caucus. Similarly, Clinton’s crowds has holes.

Watch the results from Johnson County which is the home of Iowa City and the Univ. of Iowa. Kucinich did well there in 2004 and has told his delegates to switch to Obama … if Obama does well there, he will win the state. The other county to watch is Clinton … will it go to Clinton?
My prediction is Obama / Edwards / Clinton / Biden / Richardson / Dodd on the first ballot. Then Obama / Edwards / Clinton / Richardson. Leaving Iowa, the Big Three will be largely indistinguishable as to who got first or third. Biden’s showing should be the surprise headline … and the question will be “Will Dodd stay in after New Hamshire?” and “Who will be left standing after Michigan?” At that point it may be it will be Kucinich and the Big Three.

Huckabee will take the state … without Brownback, the evangelical base has to choose between Huckabee and Thompson … that’s a solid 30% to begin with. If Huckabee doesn’t get at least 40%, he really did not make any converts. Heck Alan Keyes got 14% in 2000 to Bush’s 41 % … so the social conservatives should bring over 50% to the caucus. The interesting aspect will be how well Ron Paul and John McCain perform. My prediction is Huckabee (40) Romney (31) McCain (13) Paul (12) Thompson (4) … and Alan Keyes will tie Duncan Hunter with zero.

And the real test will be how many people show up … if the Dems pull in big numbers that’s a sign that they could convert Iowa from Red to Blue in November … if the total number is the same as 2004, that would indicate that Iowa will stay Red.

P.S. Don’t you think that Hillary looks like Lisa Simpson ?

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